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Table 3 Age, sex and baseline CVRD status-adjusted risk estimates and population attributable fractions (PAR) for non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors of MARCE in type 2 diabetes

From: Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473,399 individuals

Risk factors Category OR (95%CI) Estimated risk ARE % of events (Pe) PAR
Non-modifiable       
Age < 45 1 0.030   11.1  
  45–54 1.55 (1.49, 1.61) 0.045 0.345 17.5 0.060
  55–64 2.47 (2.38, 2.55) 0.070 0.577 23.4 0.135
  65–74 4.35 (4.20, 4.50) 0.118 0.747 24.3 0.181
  75–84 7.75 (7.47, 8.03) 0.192 0.845 17.8 0.150
  85+ 9.79 (9.38, 10.21) 0.231 0.871 5.9 0.052
Sex Female 1 0.514   45.7  
  Male 1.20 (1.18, 1.23) 0.559 0.082 54.3 0.044
Modifiable       
Comorbidities CVRD free 1 0.045   58.5  
  HF only 4.60 (4.20, 5.04) 0.177 0.748 1.1 0.008
  CKD only 2.86 (2.76, 2.96) 0.118 0.621 7.4 0.046
  MI only 4.29 (3.79, 4.85) 0.167 0.733 0.6 0.004
  Stroke only 2.17 (2.06, 2.28) 0.092 0.515 3.6 0.019
  PAD only 3.81 (3.54, 4.10) 0.151 0.704 1.2 0.009
  Multiple CVRD 4.69 (4.58, 4.79) 0.180 0.751 27.6 0.207
BMI Normal (20–24) 1 0.124   12.7  
  Under weight (< 20) 0.96 (0.88, 1.04) 0.120 -0.039 1.6 -0.001
  Over weight (25–29) 0.99 (0.96, 1.03) 0.123 -0.005 31.6 -0.002
  Obese (30–39) 1.12 (1.09, 1.16) 0.137 0.096 43.3 0.042
  Severely obese (40+) 1.49 (1.42, 1.56) 0.174 0.287 10.8 0.031
Smoking Never 1 0.129   19.7  
  Former 1.03 (1.00, 1.06) 0.132 0.026 46.3 0.012
  Current 1.15 (1.12, 1.19) 0.146 0.117 34.0 0.040
HbA1c < 7% 1 0.109   50.8  
  7–10% 1.45 (1.42, 1.48) 0.150 0.276 40.9 0.113
  10% 1.96 (1.88, 2.04) 0.192 0.436 8.3 0.036
Hypertension SBP < 150 and DBP < 100 1 0.134   83.3  
  SBP > 150 or DBP > 100 1.24 (1.21, 1.27) 0.161 0.167 16.7 0.028
High cholesterol HDL ≥1 and LDL ≤3 and triglyceride ≤2.3 1 0.127   38.4  
  HDL ≤1 or LDL ≥3 or triglyceride ≥2.3 1.10 (1.08, 1.13) 0.139 0.083 61.6 0.051
Physical activity Inactive 2.19 (2.07, 2.32) 0.140 0.506 43.0 0.217
  Moderately inactive 1.01 (0.93, 1.09) 0.069 0.005 9.1 0.000
  Moderately active 1.49 (1.41, 1.58) 0.100 0.307 36.0 0.110
  Active 1 0.069   12.0  
Overall cardiovascular health* Ideal 1 0.080   1.0  
≥1 risk factor 1.84 (1.72, 1.97) 0.138 0.419 99.0 0.415
  1. *Risk factors: BMI ≥30, current smoker, HbA1c ≥7%, hypertension, high cholesterol, inactive. Each multivariable logistic model adjusted for age, sex and baseline cardio-renal status. ARE = (Re − Ru)/Re, where Re is the estimated risk of the outcome in the exposed and Ru is the estimated risk in the unexposed groups. PAR=ARE*proportion of exposed in the population (Pe). Abbreviations: ARE attributable risk among the exposed, BMI body mass index, CVRD cardiovascular and renal diseases, DBP diastolic blood pressure, HbA1c glycated haemoglobin, HF heart failure, HDL high-density lipoprotein, CKD chronic kidney disease, HDL low-density lipoprotein, MI myocardial infarction, SBP systolic blood pressure, PAR population attributable risk, PAD peripheral artery disease