Fig. 2

Comparison of the impact of control strategies targeting the entire population vs unvaccinated individuals only, in our baseline scenario with R₀=5 and a vaccine coverage of 70–80–90% among 12–17 years old, 18–59 years old, and over 60 years old. (A) Peak in daily hospital admissions under different testing strategies. Baseline, no intervention; Autotest unvaccinated, 50% of the unvaccinated individuals aged ≥12 years old are tested weekly (sensitivity of 75%); Autotest random, the same number of individuals as in the Autotest unvaccinated are tested but among individuals aged ≥12 years old, irrespective of vaccine status; Antigenic unvaccinated, same as in Autotest unvaccinated but with tests performed by a professional (sensitivity of 90%); Antigenic random, same as in Autotest random but with tests performed by a professional (sensitivity of 90%); Vaccinate, 50% of the unvaccinated individuals aged ≥12 years old are vaccinated. B Peak in daily hospital admissions under non-pharmaceutical interventions of varying intensities. Baseline, no intervention; Reduction of x% unvaccinated, The transmission rate of unvaccinated individuals is reduced by x%; Reduction of x% all, The transmission rate at the population level is reduced by x%. We assume 25% of the population has acquired protection through natural infection (range 20–30% corresponding to the vertical bars)