Fig. 4

Proportion of infections (A, C, E) and hospitalizations (B, D, F) among groups defined by their age and vaccination status as a function of the vaccine coverage in the 12–17 years old, 18–59 years old, and over 60 years old. In the baseline scenario (A, B), we assume that vaccines are 95% effective at reducing the risk of hospitalization, 60% at reducing the risk of infection and 50% at reducing the infectivity of vaccinated individuals. In (C and D), we assume a vaccine efficacy at reducing the risk of infection of 80%. In (E and F), we assume a vaccine efficacy at reducing the risk of hospitalization of 90%. The distribution is reported for infections and hospitalizations occurring between September 1st, 2021, and March 20th, 2022 (end of the study period), for R₀=5.0. We assume 25% of the population has acquired protection through natural infection