Table 1 UWA COVID-19 model parameter settings. Where applicable, the data source is referenced after the value. Estimated values in the absence of applicable studies are described in the text

Model population

273,407. 2011 census data for Newcastle and Lake Macquarie East, NSW.

Assumed delta variant basic reproductive number

6.0 (95% CI [5.8, 6.2]) [2]

Time from infection to symptoms

5 days [18]

Time from infection to infectious

3 days [18]

Time from infection to recovery

9 days (4 days of symptoms, 6 days being infectious) [18]

Child (<12 years) susceptibility

Same as adults and adolescents

Child (<12 years) transmissibility

50% of adults

Adolescent (12–17 years) transmissibility

Same as adults

Probability of asymptomatic infections

35% [19]

Probability of asymptomatic transmission

55% of symptomatic transmission [20]

Probability of symptomatic infection isolation

33%

Home isolation of diagnosed cases

7 days

Seeded infections

On average 1 infection every 4 days for 30 days

BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccine

Efficacy: 88% (against infection and transmission)

Trigger for NPIs

1 diagnosed case in a single day

Moderate NPIs

School closures: 0%

Workplace non-attendance: 20%

Community contact reduction: 60%

Strict NPIs

School closures: 100%

Workplace non-attendance: 50%

Community contact reduction: 80%

Overall hospitalisation/ICU ratio

5:1 [21]