Table 2 Measles deaths averted due to vaccination for 112 countries across 2000 to 2030, assuming a constant case fatality ratio (CFR) in “no-vaccination” scenario and percent reduction compared to no vaccination
Model | Scenario | Time-varying period | Deaths averted (millions) 2000–2018 | Deaths averted (millions) 2019–2030 | Deaths averted (millions) 2000–2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PSU | Scenario 0 | NA | 29.3 | 26.8 | 56.1 |
77.7% | 96.8% | 85.8% | |||
Scenario 1 | 2000–2018 | 27.3 (19.9–31.4) | 27.1 (26.4–27.4) | 54.4 (46.3–58.8) | |
72.5% (52.8–83.2%) | 98.0% (95.3–99.1%) | 83.3% (70.8–89.9%) | |||
Scenario 2 | 2000–2030 | 27.3 (19.9–31.4) | 27.3 (26.6–27.5) | 54.6 (46.5–58.9) | |
72.5% (52.8–83.2%) | 98.5% (95.9–99.4%) | 83.5% (71.1–90.1%) | |||
DynaMICE | Scenario 0 | NA | 33.3 | 27.2 | 60.5 |
88.3% | 96.9% | 92.0% | |||
Scenario 1 | 2000–2018 | 32.5 (28.5–34.6) | 27.7 (27.1–27.9) | 60.2 (55.5–62.6) | |
86.3% (75.5–91.9%) | 98.7% (96.4–99.5%) | 91.6% (84.4–95.1%) | |||
Scenario 2 | 2000–2030 | 32.5 (28.5–34.6) | 27.8 (27.2–28.0) | 60.3 (55.7–62.6) | |
86.3% (75.5–91.9%) | 99.0% (97.0–99.7%) | 91.7% (84.6–95.2%) |