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Table 4 Probability of premature death for people aged 30–69 years, in Australia, 2005 projected to 2025, from cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases and diabetes (NCD4)

From: Observed and predicted premature mortality in Australia due to non-communicable diseases: a population-based study examining progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal

Year

Probability of premature death due to NCD4 (%)

WHO estimate (24)

Australian estimate

Male

Female

Person

Male

Female

Person

2005a/2006 (2005 for WHO estimate)

13.90

8.80

11.40

13.12

8.26

10.71

2010

12.10

7.80

10.00

12.02

7.63

9.84

2015

11.30

7.30

9.30

11.10

7.15

9.12

2016

11.00

7.20

9.10

10.83

6.98

8.89

2025 (target)

9.08

5.85

7.50

9.02

5.72

7.38

2025 (projected)

8.90

5.90

7.36

  1. Notes: (1) The probability of premature death due to non-communicable diseases (NCD4) represents the probability of death in persons aged 30–69 inclusive, in Australia, due to cancer (C00–C97), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (I00–I99), chronic respiratory diseases (J30–J98) and diabetes (E10–E14) combined. (2) The projected probability of premature death in 2025 was calculated using census and mortality data from 2006 to 2016 with the Australian Bureau of Statistics projected population series B which reflects the current trends in migration, fertility and life expectancy. (3) The WHO data can be viewed online [10]. (4) The probability of premature death in 2025 needed to meet the WHO 2025 target was calculated as the WHO probability of premature death in 2010 multiplied by 0.75 (to estimate a 25% reduction). (A) WHO estimate is given for 2005, and the Australian estimate was calculated for 2006