Fig. 3

Forecasting accuracy by forecast date (7-day forecast horizon). A Relative WIS (rWIS) of the forecasting models for the 30 forecasting dates. Lower rWIS values indicate better forecasts. B Mean absolute error of the forecasting models. The mean AE is calculated as the mean AE over all Trusts. C Mean daily Trust-level COVID-19 hospital admissions by week, for reference. All panels are for a 7-day forecast horizon; see Additional file 1: Fig. S5 for evaluation on a 14-day forecast horizon