Table 3 Test performance as measured by positive and negative predictive value (PPV, NPV), sensitivity, specificity, positive FITs per cancer detected, and cancer miss rate per 10,000 negative tests. FIT alone and model-based approach

FIT alone

FIT≥10 µg Hb/g

8.4% (7.1, 9.9)

99.9% (99.9, 100)

92.1% (86.4, 95.5)

91.5% (91.1, 91.9)

12

7

FIT≥10 µg Hb/g

In subset with serum ferritin & C-reactive protein^a

8.8% (6.9, 11.1)

99.9% (99.8, 100)

93.8% (85, 97.5)

90.0% (89.2, 90.7)

11

7

Multivariable model including FIT

Model A^a: continuous FIT PLUS continuous variables selected by stepwise procedure: age, sex, serum ferritin, platelets, c-reactive protein

1.7% (1.4, 2.2)

99.9% (99.6, 99.9)

93.8% (85, 97.5)

45.9% (44.7, 47.1)

57

14

Model B: FIT≥10µg Hb/g PLUS categorical variables selected by stepwise procedure: sex, low mean cell volume

7.4% (6.2, 8.7)

99.9% (99.9, 100)

93.5% (88.2, 96.6)

90.1% (89.6, 90.5)

14

6

Model C: FIT Spline PLUS categorical variables selected by stepwise procedure: sex, low mean cell volume

8.4% (7.1, 9.9)

99.9% (99.9, 100)

92.1% (86.4, 95.5)

91.5% (91.1, 91.9)

12

7