Fig. 1

A Daily number of cases reported in France between 1 January 2009 and 30 November 2018. B Distribution of the composite serial interval used in the model. The different colours of the curve correspond to the three scenarios used to compute the distribution of the serial interval (orange: serial interval when missing ancestor; red: serial interval without unreported case, brown: serial interval when the case between the two reported cases was missing). C Transmission potential, which was computed by convolving the number of cases in the last 30 days with the composite serial interval