Predictive parameter | Prediction at age 3 monthsa | Prediction at age 1 yearb | Prediction at age 2 yearsc | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Higher-than-normal BMI growth in early phase (6 months–2 years) | Higher-than-normal BMI growth in late phase (3 years–5 years) | Higher-than-normal BMI growth in late phase (3 years–5 years) | |||
Discovery cohort | Discovery cohort | Validation cohort | Discovery cohort | Validation cohort | |
N | 711 | 645 | 670 | 640 | 666 |
AUROC | 0.69 (0.66, 0.72) | 0.73 (0.70, 0.75) | 0.61 | 0.79 (0.76, 0.81) | 0.71 |
Cut-off score valued | − 1.689 | − 1.135 | NA | − 1.133 | NA |
Prevalence, n (%) | 140 (20.0) | 194 (30.8) | 221 (33.0) | 192 (30.0) | 223 (33.5) |
Sensitivity, % | 70.7 (55.5, 82.3) | 73.7 (67.6, 79.0) | 68.1 (62.5, 73.2) | 76.0 (70.0, 81.1) | 61.0 (55.3, 66.5) |
Specificity, % | 74.1 (61.6, 83.6) | 64.7 (58.2, 70.7) | 58.2 (52.5, 63.7) | 78.1 (72.9, 82.5) | 68.0 (63.3, 72.4) |
Positive predictive value, % | 40.5 (26.5, 55.6) | 48.2 (41.9, 54.5) | 45.3 (40.1, 50.6) | 60.7 (53.5, 67.4) | 49.5 (43.6, 55.3) |
Negative predictive value, % | 91.0 (84.7, 95.0) | 84.7 (80.2, 88.3) | 78.2 (73.4, 82.4) | 88.0 (84.5, 90.7) | 77.2 (73.3, 80.8) |
Positive likelihood ratio | 2.73 (1.44, 5.03) | 2.09 (1.62, 2.69) | 1.63 (1.32, 2.02) | 3.47 (2.58, 4.64) | 1.91 (1.50, 2.41) |
Negative likelihood ratio | 0.40 (0.21, 0.72) | 0.41 (0.30, 0.56) | 0.55 (0.42, 0.71) | 0.31 (0.23, 0.41) | 0.57 (0.46, 0.71) |