Fig. 2

Calibration of risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes from cross-validation among 65,684 participants in the risk prediction population. For each model, the observed and predicted T2D event rates are shown for each of 10 equally sized groups of absolute predicted risk. Vertical lines represent 95% CIs. Calibration slopes are presented from 10-fold cross-validation (pooled using inverse variance weighting) and were derived from a Cox regression of the predicted risk on the observed risk. Concise model: age, sex, parental history of diabetes, body mass index and HbA1c. Full model: concise model plus waist circumference, triglycerides and HDL cholesterol. Metabolic biomarkers comprise the first 11 metabolic biomarker principal components