Fig. 1

Timing of vaccine delivery in the two models (June: black, November: blue, red, green) by target age group. Solid outlines and paler shading correspond to first doses, while dashed outlines and darker shading correspond to second doses. For the June model the vaccination of 12–17-year-olds is assumed to be part of the national immunisation campaign. For the November model, first doses are largely based on reported numbers until early November; the vaccination of 12–15-year-olds and 5–11-year-olds is from the default assumption of 140,000 vaccines per week through the school delivery programme, and a 70% uptake