Fig. 2

Comparison of data (left) and model results (June: centre, November: right) for the number of daily hospital admissions in ten age groups, from 0–5 years to 85 and above. The data on the left is a 1-week moving average (using 3 days either side of the date) which removes any day-of-the-week effects and helps to smooth stochastic fluctuations. The model results are from the both June (average over seven Step 4 mixing scenarios) and November predictions and are computed using 5-year age classes, and as such the first three age groups shown are composites of multiple simulated age classes: the 0–5 age group contains all projected hospital admissions from the 0–4 age class and one fifth of all admissions from the 5–9 age-class. The vertical lines corresponds to the simulation dates for the two projections—26th June and 6th November 2021