Fig. 3

Impact of vaccination of 12–17-year-olds in England, calculated in June 2021. Top row: reduction in infections, hospital admissions and deaths in 12–17-year-olds due to vaccination in this age group. Middle row: total number of infections, hospital admissions and deaths in the entire population (total bar) and 12–17-year-olds (open bar)—the darker rear bars are the projected totals without vaccination of 12–17-year-olds, while the lighter front bars are the totals when 80% of 12–17-year-olds receive the vaccine. Lower row: number of projected hospital admissions over time (lines and ribbons), and the assumed time discounting (grey shading). In the top two rows bars are the mean value, error bars are the 95% prediction intervals. The different colours represent different assumptions about changes in social mixing patterns after Step 4 [56]; this is modelled as a step-change on 19th July 2021, followed by a gradual return to pre-pandemic mixing over different time scales