Fig. 4

Impact of vaccination of 12–17-year-olds in England, calculated in November 2021. Top row: reduction in infections, hospital admissions and deaths in 12–17-year-olds due to vaccination in this age group. Middle row: total number of infections, hospital admissions and deaths in the entire population (total bar) and 12–17-year-olds (open bar). Lower row: number of projected hospital admissions over time (lines and ribbons; black for without childhood vaccination, colours corresponding to the bars above with 70% uptake and default speed), and the assumed time discounting (grey shading). In the top two rows bars are the mean value, error bars are the 95% prediction intervals, and different colours represent different assumptions about uptake in 12–15-year-olds (no vaccination, 60%, 70% and 80%) and different assumptions about vaccine delivery speed (slow - 100,000 per week, default - 140,000 per week, fast - 180,000 per week). In 16–17-year-olds, uptake was based on observations up to mid November except the counterfactual of no vaccination in which case all vaccination in 12–17-year-olds were removed