Fig. 4

Prediction results from A complex super learner and B logistic regression at varied pregnancy stages. (1) Complex super learner algorithm included response-mean, LASSO regression, CART, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting. The simpler logistic regression models were developed based on predictors selected in the complex super learner algorithms at each level, aiming to include a minimum set of predictors for easier interpretability and higher clinical uptake. (2) Level 1: 1-year preconception to last menstrual period; level 2: last menstrual period to before diagnosis of gestational diabetes; level 3: at the time of diagnosis of gestational diabetes; level 4: 1 week after diagnosis of gestational diabetes. (3) The corresponding difference in AUC by Delong’s test between the complex super learner and simpler logistic regression models using level 1, levels 1–2, levels 1–3, and levels 1–4 are 0.073, 0.049, 0.831, and 0.264 respectively. AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; LASSO: least absolute shrinkage and selection operator