Relationship between baseline haemoglobin and haematological endpoints on day 7. The shaded area shows 95% CI. Adjusted for all independent predictors (shown in Table 3) and shown for a child < 5 years of age, from low-transmission intensity area, normal G6PD status and baseline parasitaemia = 10,000/μL. A Absolute change in haemoglobin on day 7 evaluated in all patients. B Risk of > 25% drop in haemoglobin on day 7. C Risk of moderate/severe anaemia (Hb < 10 g/dL) on day 7. D Risk of severe anaemia (Hb < 7 g/dL) on day 7. E Absolute change in haemoglobin on day 7 evaluated in patients from sub-Saharan Africa. A–D used data from all locations. For the interpretation of the association in A and E, please refer to Additional file 3: Table S3.