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Table 4 Predictive performance of risk scores for incident dementia (N=5374)

From: Circulating serum metabolites as predictors of dementia: a machine learning approach in a 21-year follow-up of the Whitehall II cohort study

Risk scores

HR (95% confidence interval)

R2 (95% confidence interval)

AIC

Δ AIC

Sensitivity %

Specificity %

c-statistic (95% confidence interval)

p-value*

Age-only model

3.04 (2.66, 3.47)

0.525 (0.450, 0.593)

5198.2

Ref.

75.5

70.3

0.780 (0.757, 0.802)

Ref.

Risk score 1†

3.13 (2.75, 3.57)

0.545 (0.468, 0.636)

5181.2

− 17.0

80.9

64.7

0.786 (0.763, 0.808)

0.05

Risk score 2‡

3.16 (2.77, 3.60)

0.551 (0.475, 0.620)

5176.1

− 22.1

81.5

64.2

0.787 (0.764, 0.809)

0.05

Risk score 3§

3.17 (2.78, 3.61)

0.557 (0.482, 0.630)

5170.8

− 27.4

77.0

69.1

0.788 (0.766, 0.811)

0.03

Risk score 4¶

3.19 (2.80, 3.63)

0.565 (0.492, 0.636)

5163.6

− 34.6

72.4

72.7

0.790 (0.767, 0.813)

0.02

Risk score 5#

3.26 (2.87, 3.71)

0.582 (0.511, 0.649)

5147.7

− 50.5

74.0

72.0

0.796 (0.774, 0.819)

<0.001

  1. R2 Royston’s R2, AIC Akaike information criterion, c-statistic Harrell’s C-index, VLDL very low-density lipoproteins, HDL high-density lipoprotein
  2. *p-value for difference in c-statistic using age-only model as reference
  3. †Risk score 1 includes age and glucose
  4. ‡Risk score 2 includes age, glucose and phospholipids to total lipids ratio in medium HDL (%)
  5. §Risk score 3 includes age, glucose, phospholipids to total lipids ratio in medium HDL (%) and creatinine (mmol/l)
  6. ¶Risk score 4 includes age, glucose, phospholipids to total lipids ratio in medium HDL (%), creatinine (mmol/l) and triglycerides to total lipids ratio in very large VLDL (%)
  7. #Risk score 5 includes age, glucose, phospholipids to total lipids ratio in medium HDL (%), creatinine (mmol/l), triglycerides to total lipids ratio in very large VLDL (%), phospholipids to total lipids ratio in medium VLDL (%), alanine (mmol/l), 3-hydroxybutyrate (mmol/l), free cholesterol to total lipids ratio in small HDL (%), citrate (mmol/l), free cholesterol to total lipids ratio in very large VLDL (%), free cholesterol to total lipids ratio in large HDL (%), triglycerides to total lipids ratio in medium HDL (%), phospholipids to total lipids ratio in small HDL (%), sphingomyelins (mmol/l) and albumin (signal area)
  8. Youden index cutoff points for the calculation of the sensitivity and specificity are as follows: 0.541 for the age-only model; 0.310 for risk score 1; 0.296 for risk score 2; 0.468 for risk score 3; 0.604 for risk score 4; and 0.564 for risk score 5
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