Fig. 1

Best fit model simulations under various immunization approaches. For all panels; reported chickenpox cases (black), simulated chickenpox cases without vaccination (blue), simulated chickenpox cases utilizing the data from the (slow) 1984 measles vaccine roll-out in Thailand (magenta), simulated chickenpox cases utilizing the data from the (moderate) 1992 hepatitis B, 3rd dose vaccine roll-out in Thailand (orange), and simulated chickenpox cases utilizing the (aggressive) 2006 Japanese Encephalitis roll-out in Thailand (green). a Uptake levels for the 3 roll-outs with perfect (solid line) and leaky (dashed line) uptake. Colored regions between dashed and solid lines represent realistic ranges of coverage. b Time series of simulated cases under various immunization roll-outs, during our study period (2003–2010) if vaccination had started in 1996. c Total reported, simulated, and immunization estimates for chickenpox cases over our 8 year study period (2003–2010). d Chickenpox cases prevented under various conditions, including if vaccination had started in 1996 or 2003. X-axis labels represent vaccine coverage, vaccine start date, with dashed lines representing leaky vaccines and solid representing perfect vaccines