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Table 1 Simulated scenarios main analyses. In all vaccination scenarios, girls are invited for vaccination with the bivalent vaccine since 2009 and gender-neutral vaccination is implemented from 2021. Vaccination coverage in boys is 50% of those in girls, unless indicated otherwise

From: Rapid elimination of cervical cancer while maintaining the harms and benefits ratio of cervical cancer screening: a modelling study

 

Base case

Alternative scenarios, changes apply from 1 January 2022 onwards

Vaccination coverage in girlsa

55%

60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 90%b

Vaccine type

Bivalent

Nonavalent

Screening coveragec

61%

70%

Stop screening for all women

Number of lifetime screens for either vaccinated women or vaccinated cohorts (screening ages)

5 (at 30, 35, 40, 45d, 50, 55d, 60, and 65d years) [13]

0 (No screening)

1 (at 40 years) [29]

2 (at 35 and 45 years) [1]

3 (at 35, 47 and 59 years) [29]

  1. a Vaccination coverage of boys is assumed to be 50% of that in girls
  2. b In this scenario, coverage of boys is also assumed to be 90%
  3. c Distributed over 90% of the population. The remaining 10% of the population is assumed never to attend screening. This assumption is removed in a sensitivity analysis
  4. d screening age only applies if a woman was HPV-positive in the previous round (45, 55 and 65) or did not attend the previous round (45 and 55) as in the current Dutch programme [13]