Table 1 Model parameters

Incubation period

Gamma (μ=4.544, k=1/0.709)

[12]

Transmission onset relative to the symptom onset

−4 + Gamma (μ=5.266, k=1/0.8709)

[12]

Latent period

Incubation period + transmission onset relative to symptom onset

[12]

Delays from symptom onset to diagnosis

Empirical distribution from the raw data

[12]

Infectious period for asymptomatic cases

Gamma (μ=4, k=4/5)

[13]

Proportion of asymptomatic cases

52%, 50%, 45%, and 12% among individuals aged 0–4, 5–11, 12–17, and ≥18 years, respectively; or

50% in all age groups during the Omicron wave for sensitivity analysis

[14]

Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic cases

50% (25–75%)

[13, 15, 16]

Age groups (years)

[0–5], [5–10], [10–15], [15–20], [20–25], [25–30], [30–35], [35–40], [40–45], [45–50], [50–55], [55–60], [60–65], [65–70], [70–75], [≥75]

Vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant infection

BNT162b2 one dose ≥21 days: 57% (95% CI 50–63%)

[17,18,19,20]

BNT162b2 two doses >14 days: 80% (95% CI 77–83%)

ChAdOx1 one dose ≥ 21 days: 46% (95% CI 35–55%)

ChAdOx1 two doses >14 days: 67% (95% CI 62–71%)

mRNA-1273 one dose ≥21 days: 75% (95% CI 64–83%)

mRNA-1273 two doses >14 days: 85% (95% CI 84–89%)

Ad26.COV2.S >14 days: 69% (95% CI 67–71%)

Vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant infection

BNT162b2 one dose ≥18 days: 42.8% (95% CI 40.3–45.1%)

[21]

BNT162b2 one dose >42 days: 31.5% (95% CI 29.9–33.1%)

BNT162b2 two doses <14 days: same value with one dose

BNT162b2 two doses >21 days: 65.5% (95% CI 63.9–67.0%)

BNT162b2 two doses >49 days: 48.7% (95% CI 47.1–50.2%)

BNT162b2 two doses >84 days: 30.1% (95% CI 28.7–31.5%)

BNT162b2 two doses >119 days: 15.4% (95% CI 14.2–16.6%)

BNT162b2 two doses >154 days: 11.5% (95% CI 10.1–12.9%)

BNT162b2 two doses >189 days: 8.8% (95% CI 7.0–10.5%)

Interpolate linearly in between

ChAdOx1 one dose ≥18 days: 17.7% (95% CI 14.3–21.0%)

ChAdOx1 one dose >42 days: 16.7% (95% CI 12.3–20.0%)

ChAdOx1 two doses <14 days: same value with one dose

ChAdOx1 two doses >21 days: 48.9% (95% CI 39.2–57.1%)

ChAdOx1 two doses >49 days: 33.7% (95% CI 25.0–41.5%)

ChAdOx1 two doses >84 days: 28.6% (95% CI 20.9–35.6%)

ChAdOx1 two doses >119 days: 17.8% (95% CI 13.4–21.9%)

ChAdOx1 two doses >154 days: 4.0% (95% CI 1.9–6.1%)

ChAdOx1 two doses >189 days: 0%

Interpolate linearly in between

mRNA-1273 one dose ≥18 days: 47.9% (95% CI 43.1–52.3%)

mRNA-1273 one dose >42 days: 31.9% (95% CI 27.3–36.1%)

mRNA-1273 two doses <14 days: same value with one dose

mRNA-1273 two doses >21 days: 75.1% (95% CI 70.8–78.7%)

mRNA-1273 two doses >49 days: 52.8% (95% CI 48.2–57.1%)

mRNA-1273 two doses >84 days: 35.6% (95% CI 32.7–38.4%)

mRNA-1273 two doses >119 days: 25.3% (95% CI 23.2–27.4%)

mRNA-1273 two doses >154 days: 15.0% (95% CI 11.6–18.2%)

mRNA-1273 two doses >189 days: 14.9% (95% CI 3.9–24.7%)

Interpolate linearly in between

Ad26.COV2.S^a

Booster dose^b >10 days: 67.3% (95% CI 65.9–68.6%)

Booster dose^b >21 days: 66.9% (95% CI 65.6–68.1%)

Booster dose^b >49 days: 55.0% (95% CI 54.2–55.8%)

Booster dose^b >84 days: 45.7% (95% CI 44.7–46.7%)

Interpolate linearly in between