Fig. 11

The latest 4-week ahead forecasts of reported monkeypox cases for the week of 10/13/2022 derived from the second- ranked sub-epidemic model based on weekly cases using 10-week calibration data. The black circles to the left of the vertical line represent the reported cases as of the Wednesday (CDC forecast) or Friday (OWID forecast) of the forecast period; the solid red line corresponds to the best fit model; the dashed black lines correspond to the 95% prediction intervals. The vertical dashed black line indicates the start of the forecast period