Skip to main content

Table 1 Mean performance metrics of the forecasts generated by the sub-epidemic models

From: Real-time forecasting the trajectory of monkeypox outbreaks at the national and global levels, July–October 2022

 

Model

Brazil

Canada

England

France

Germany

Spain

US (OWID)

US (CDC)

World

Mean absolute error (MAE)

Top-ranked

377.90

20.13

38.36

119.13

21.31

76.59

1485.54

1169.67

1056.77

2nd ranked

749.38

25.41

46.50

105.15

42.28

154.15

892.71

2597.93

1403.50

Ensemble (Weighted)

377.90

20.13

38.36

119.13

21.31

76.59

1485.54

1169.67

1056.77

Ensemble (Unweighted)

408.27

22.04

39.80

107.87

23.22

108.64

1085.13

1325.64

1015.21

Mean square error (MSE)

Top-ranked

383,525.66

1468.89

3833.80

45,724.96

806.13

12,347.01

6,071,637.86

5,346,637.83

2,204,026.11

2nd ranked

2,413,843.43

1420.74

4436.03

37,874.07

3591.54

45,935.30

1,366,006.66

57,778,292.62

3,512,916.37

Ensemble (Weighted)

383,525.66

1468.89

3833.80

45,724.96

806.13

12,347.01

6,071,637.86

5,346,637.83

2,204,026.11

Ensemble (Unweighted)

485,613.55

1405.55

3889.00

41,981.04

869.00

29,812.68

2,087,350.98

7,742,719.36

1,757,084.06

Percent coverage of the 95% prediction interval (PI)

Top-ranked

68.75

87.50

90.63

87.50

100.00

100.00

71.88

56.25

84.38

2nd ranked

68.75

81.25

93.75

90.63

93.75

93.75

87.50

75.00

90.63

Ensemble (Weighted)

68.75

87.50

90.63

87.50

100.00

100.00

71.88

56.25

84.38

Ensemble (Unweighted)

75.00

87.50

90.63

90.63

96.88

100.00

93.75

75.00

93.75

Weighted Interval Score (WIS)

Top-ranked

276.22

16.42

26.48

98.80

13.74

55.81

1021.17

893.27

677.85

2nd ranked

496.21

19.32

32.37

91.24

27.84

105.07

799.28

1568.86

834.45

Ensemble (Weighted)

276.22

16.42

26.48

98.80

13.74

55.81

1021.17

893.27

677.85

Ensemble (Unweighted)

337.07

17.28

28.36

92.81

17.40

68.06

708.94

1027.57

669.14

  1. The mean performance metrics of the forecasts generated by the sub-epidemic models’ performance across 8 sequential forecasting periods (Week of July 28th through the week of September 15th, 2022) for each geographical area. Only weeks in which observed case data was available are included. Values highlighted in bold correspond to best performing model for a given geographical region and metric