Model | Brazil | Canada | England | France | Germany | Spain | US (OWID) | US (CDC) | World | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean absolute error (MAE) | Top-ranked | 377.90 | 20.13 | 38.36 | 119.13 | 21.31 | 76.59 | 1485.54 | 1169.67 | 1056.77 |
2nd ranked | 749.38 | 25.41 | 46.50 | 105.15 | 42.28 | 154.15 | 892.71 | 2597.93 | 1403.50 | |
Ensemble (Weighted) | 377.90 | 20.13 | 38.36 | 119.13 | 21.31 | 76.59 | 1485.54 | 1169.67 | 1056.77 | |
Ensemble (Unweighted) | 408.27 | 22.04 | 39.80 | 107.87 | 23.22 | 108.64 | 1085.13 | 1325.64 | 1015.21 | |
Mean square error (MSE) | Top-ranked | 383,525.66 | 1468.89 | 3833.80 | 45,724.96 | 806.13 | 12,347.01 | 6,071,637.86 | 5,346,637.83 | 2,204,026.11 |
2nd ranked | 2,413,843.43 | 1420.74 | 4436.03 | 37,874.07 | 3591.54 | 45,935.30 | 1,366,006.66 | 57,778,292.62 | 3,512,916.37 | |
Ensemble (Weighted) | 383,525.66 | 1468.89 | 3833.80 | 45,724.96 | 806.13 | 12,347.01 | 6,071,637.86 | 5,346,637.83 | 2,204,026.11 | |
Ensemble (Unweighted) | 485,613.55 | 1405.55 | 3889.00 | 41,981.04 | 869.00 | 29,812.68 | 2,087,350.98 | 7,742,719.36 | 1,757,084.06 | |
Percent coverage of the 95% prediction interval (PI) | Top-ranked | 68.75 | 87.50 | 90.63 | 87.50 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 71.88 | 56.25 | 84.38 |
2nd ranked | 68.75 | 81.25 | 93.75 | 90.63 | 93.75 | 93.75 | 87.50 | 75.00 | 90.63 | |
Ensemble (Weighted) | 68.75 | 87.50 | 90.63 | 87.50 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 71.88 | 56.25 | 84.38 | |
Ensemble (Unweighted) | 75.00 | 87.50 | 90.63 | 90.63 | 96.88 | 100.00 | 93.75 | 75.00 | 93.75 | |
Weighted Interval Score (WIS) | Top-ranked | 276.22 | 16.42 | 26.48 | 98.80 | 13.74 | 55.81 | 1021.17 | 893.27 | 677.85 |
2nd ranked | 496.21 | 19.32 | 32.37 | 91.24 | 27.84 | 105.07 | 799.28 | 1568.86 | 834.45 | |
Ensemble (Weighted) | 276.22 | 16.42 | 26.48 | 98.80 | 13.74 | 55.81 | 1021.17 | 893.27 | 677.85 | |
Ensemble (Unweighted) | 337.07 | 17.28 | 28.36 | 92.81 | 17.40 | 68.06 | 708.94 | 1027.57 | 669.14 |