Table 2 Predicted cumulative number of newly forecasted monkeypox cases and 95% PIs for the top-ranked model
Week | Brazil | Canada | England | France | Germany | Spain | US (OWID) | U.S. (CDC) | World | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-28-2022 | Median | 8463.7 | 742.3 | 773.9 | 872.4 | 591.2 | 1391.2 | 4838.8 | 3972.2 | 20,957.3 |
LB | 6067.5 | 622.3 | 322.9 | 245.6 | 234.1 | 0.0 | 2038.2 | 1482.7 | 14,263.4 | |
UB | 11,783.6 | 887.6 | 1384.3 | 2322.0 | 972.4 | 5137.4 | 17,645.5 | 14,737.1 | 32,121.5 | |
08-04-2022 | Median | 1187.2 | 385.9 | 660.3 | 522.6 | 458.7 | 966.3 | 33,042.3 | 31,740.8 | 34,936.8 |
LB | 651.6 | 215.0 | 224.7 | 62.0 | 167.6 | 0.0 | 21,005.3 | 20,265.5 | 24,148.0 | |
UB | 2841.9 | 621.8 | 1157.7 | 1316.6 | 767.2 | 3435.6 | 55,553.7 | 52,503.6 | 42,706.4 | |
08-11-2022 | Median | 2685.3 | 254.5 | 434.9 | 286.1 | 420.3 | 1237.7 | 6058.4 | 4301.5 | 22,930.0 |
LB | 1477.3 | 143.3 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 162.3 | 0.0 | 2242.7 | 3118.5 | 15,153.2 | |
UB | 5348.1 | 385.7 | 848.3 | 924.7 | 696.3 | 3754.3 | 20,689.6 | 5592.6 | 32,717.9 | |
08-18-2022 | Median | 1631.6 | 231.2 | 251.2 | 152.8 | 354.1 | 1158.6 | 6247.6 | 4539.4 | 18,643.0 |
LB | 711.3 | 120.6 | 32.6 | 0.0 | 114.4 | 0.0 | 1816.2 | 3226.2 | 12,818.4 | |
UB | 3662.6 | 352.7 | 515.4 | 677.8 | 593.4 | 3503.7 | 15,853.4 | 6067.3 | 25,447.7 | |
08-25-2022 | Median | 2312.1 | 185.7 | 147.6 | 609.1 | 277.7 | 806.8 | 3420.0 | 3756.9 | 15,412.5 |
LB | 1288.4 | 97.3 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 610.6 | 2218.4 | 9456.3 | |
UB | 3903.2 | 277.4 | 340.1 | 2517.0 | 506.4 | 2753.8 | 7594.1 | 5342.4 | 22,458.5 | |
09-01-2022 | Median | 1593.3 | 111.7 | 130.1 | 503.9 | 147.1 | 755.3 | 3824.4 | 3175.9 | 12,899.5 |
LB | 768.7 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 571.0 | 1697.9 | 7794.2 | |
UB | 2599.4 | 240.7 | 281.3 | 2252.0 | 410.0 | 2166.7 | 8101.4 | 4689.0 | 18,540.1 | |
09-08-2022 | Median | 1723.7 | 75.6 | 108.4 | 438.6 | 56.7 | 271.0 | 2978.7 | 2542.4 | 9097.0 |
LB | 866.6 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 223.6 | 959.6 | 5279.6 | |
UB | 2648.9 | 180.9 | 267.2 | 1998.6 | 158.0 | 933.0 | 6706.9 | 4176.0 | 13,323.9 | |
09-15-2022 | Median | 2401.9 | 66.0 | 74.0 | 346.6 | 51.6 | 143.9 | 3826.9 | 2526.1 | 11,764.0 |
LB | 844.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 690.5 | 999.5 | 5704.9 | |
UB | 4116.9 | 415.6 | 733.7 | 1836.3 | 303.1 | 739.6 | 7379.2 | 4086.6 | 18,545.3 | |
09-22-2022 | Median | 2144.9 | 41.7 | 79.9 | 357.9 | 12.8 | 143.3 | 2958.6 | 2011.8 | 10,205.4 |
LB | 875.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 265.3 | 768.4 | 4305.2 | |
UB | 3452.4 | 354.2 | 734.6 | 1882.9 | 236.1 | 663.5 | 6078.7 | 3299.8 | 16,332.0 | |
09-29-2022 | Median | 1534.7 | 29.5 | 45.0 | 115.6 | 7.7 | 32.3 | 3365.1 | 1395.1 | 8853.4 |
LB | 320.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 326.2 | 377.7 | 3312.8 | |
UB | 2898.0 | 223.8 | 701.1 | 1432.3 | 215.9 | 437.5 | 6758.5 | 2469.3 | 14,514.1 | |
10-06-2022 | Median | 1117.8 | 13.6 | 20.0 | 32.7 | 4.3 | 66.1 | 1017.4 | 931.4 | 5297.9 |
LB | 129.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 330.9 | 244.2 | |
UB | 2240.8 | 129.0 | 574.3 | 1229.4 | 131.4 | 335.6 | 5154.0 | 1551.8 | 11,508.3 | |
10-13-2022 | Median | 878.9 | 14.2 | 2.7 | 10.3 | 1.5 | 43.0 | 1806.3 | 910.1 | 6231.5 |
LB | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 245.3 | 487.8 | |
UB | 1951.5 | 90.4 | 342.8 | 1088.0 | 125.7 | 315.6 | 5544.5 | 1603.5 | 12,468.0 |