Fig. 5

ICERs as proportions of GDP per capita and relative affordability of COVID-19 vaccine roll-out scenarios. In each panel, a total of 900 data points (25 countries × 36 vaccine roll-out scenarios) have been allocated in each cell, with colours indicating the overall count of data points in that cell. Only 25 of 27 countries with ICER results also had relative affordability results. Data on government general health expenditure for Somalia and Libya were not available. In the top panel, for example, there are over 150 country-and-vaccine-roll-out-scenario combinations where the ICERs account for 0–10% of the GDP per capita and where incremental costs of the vaccination programmes account for 0–10% of the country’s general healthcare expenditure. An unfavourable conclusion (dotted pattern cells) is extremely unaffordable (> 100% of general healthcare expenditure) or one where ICERs as proportions of GDP per capita are too high (> 0.5); a favourable conclusion (pattern-free cells) is one where ICERs as proportions of GDP per capita are low (< = 0.5) and programme costs are also low (< = 10% of general healthcare expenditure); a mixed conclusion (striped pattern cells) is one where ICERs as proportions of GDP per capita are low (< = 0.5), but programme costs are high (> = 10% of general healthcare expenditure)