Table 4 Summary of observed data and modelled outputs (median and 95% CrI in parenthesis) by respective time periods in 2021 for SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission
Observed data (●) and modelled outputs (◆) | Time period in 2021 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall Apr–Aug | Apr 1–May 12 | May 13–Jun 30 | Jul 1–Jul 17 | Jul 18–Aug 18 | |
● Imported cases | |||||
Isolated for testing on arrival or quarantined | 1291 | 809 | 270 | 136 | 76 |
Not quarantined | 93 | 34 | 32 | 12 | 15 |
● Local cases (by time of isolation | 4371 | 196 | 755 | 474 | 2946 |
◆ Missed cases | 12,000 (4200–75,000) | 1400 (180–15,000) | 1700 (700–11,000) | 1400 (270–11,000) | 6100 (2600–43,000) |
◆ Total cases (adjusted by time of infection and missed cases) | 17,000 (8000–84,000) | 1700 (420–15,500) | 2400 (1500–12,000) | 2400 (800–13,000) | 9000 (4700–50,000) |
● ICU cases (by time of isolation) | 36 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 19 |
● Deaths (by time of isolation) | 25 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
◆ Case ICU risk (%) | 0.7 (0.3–1.1) | 1.7 (1.0–2.6) | 1.3 (1.0–1.8) | 0.8 (0.3–1.7) | 0.5 (0.2–0.8) |
◆ Infection ICU risk (%) | 0.2 (0.04–0.4) | 0.3 (0.03–1.1) | 0.4 (0.08–0.6) | 0.3 (0.06–1.0) | 0.2 (0.03–0.3) |
◆ Case fatality ratio (%) | 0.5 (0.2–0.8) | 1.4 (0.8–2.0) | 0.6 (0.4–0.8) | 0.2 (0.09–0.4) | 0.5 (0.2–0.8) |
◆ Infection fatality ratio (%) | 0.2 (0.03–0.3) | 0.2 (0.02–0.9) | 0.2 (0.03–0.3) | 0.08 (0.01–0.2) | 0.2 (0.03–0.3) |