Fig. 2

Trends of the predicted human rabies deaths and vaccine vials during 2023–2035 in China. Under the status quo, the predicted number of dog-mediated human rabies deaths will remain constant in 2030. However, scaling up dog vaccination could facilitate the elimination goal in national and area-specific analyses, suggesting that human rabies deaths will be ended as early as 2026 in Tianjin (North China). Scenario 1, Status quo; Scenario 2, Improved PEP; Scenario 3a, Improved mass dog vaccination; Scenario 3b, Improved PEP + improved mass dog vaccination; Scenario 4a, Status quo + IBCM; Scenario 4b, Improved PEP + IBCM; Scenario 4c, Improved mass dog vaccination + IBCM; Scenario 4d, Improved PEP + improved mass dog vaccination + IBCM. PEP, post-exposure prophylaxis; IBCM, integrated bite case management