Table 1 Trends of dog-mediated human rabies burden during 2024–2035 under different scenarios in China
Scenario | Rabies deaths | Rabies deaths averted | DALYs | DALYs averted | Human vaccine vials used (in millions) | Total cost (US dollars, in billions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario 1 | 3,695 (2,572–4,931) | 19,270 (13,459–25,921) | 58,317 (40,581–77,817) | 304,106 (212,402–409,064) | 304.5658 (259.7306–350.5717) | 9.3839 (8.6159–10.1720) |
Scenario 2 | 2,737 (1,904–3,663) | 20,229 (14,132–27,209) | 43,616 (30,336–58,367) | 318,806 (222,719–428,815) | 327.9403 (279.6642–377.4770) | 9.7075 (8.8919–10.5445) |
Scenario 3a | 429 (95–1,244) | 2,236 (495–6,487) | 7,691 (1,754–21,532) | 40,121 (9,115–112,314) | 305.5471 (257.7704–352.9162) | 12.5258 (11.7074–13.3373) |
Scenario 3b | 376 (88–1,025) | 2,289 (502–6,707) | 6,762 (1,625–17,879) | 41,050 (9,244–115,973) | 328.9948 (277.5512–379.9990) | 12.8505 (11.9813–13.7123) |
Scenario 4a | 3,695 (2,572–4,931) | 19,270 (13,459–25,921) | 58,317 (40,581–77,817) | 304,106 (212,402–409,064) | 152.5057 (130.0681–175.5384) | 6.7791 (6.3947–7.1736) |
Scenario 4b | 2,737 (1,904–3,663) | 20,229 (14,132–27,209) | 43,616 (30,336–58,367) | 318,806 (222,719–428,815) | 164.2100 (140.0504–189.0104) | 6.9411 (6.5329–7.3602) |
Scenario 4c | 429 (95–1,244) | 2,236 (495–6,487) | 7,691 (1,754–21,532) | 40,121 (9,115–112,314) | 79.2837 (43.6736–145.5069) | 8.7319 (8.0869–9.8504) |
Scenario 4d | 376 (88–1,025) | 2,289 (502–6,707) | 6,762 (1,625–17,879) | 41,050 (9,244–115,973) | 84.1877 (46.1345–156.1162) | 8.804 (8.1223–10.0017) |