Table 2 The predicted number of dog-mediated human rabies deaths during 2023–2035 in China by regions
Scenario | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3a | Scenario 3b |
|---|---|---|---|---|
China (Overall) | ||||
 Year 2023 | 305 (212–407) | 305 (212–407) | 306 (217–417) | 306 (217–417) |
 Year 2025 | 306 (213–408) | 268 (186–358) | 116 (19–249) | 102 (17–218) |
 Year 2028 | 307 (214–410) | 212 (147–284) | 10 (0–54) | 7 (0–37) |
 Year 2030 | 308 (214–411) | 212 (148–284) | 7 (0–84) | 5 (0–58) |
 Year 2033 | 310 (215–413) | 213 (148–286) | 0 (0–3) | 0 (0–2) |
Shandong (East China) | ||||
 Year 2023 | 10 (7–14) | 10 (7–14) | 10 (7–14) | 10 (7–14) |
 Year 2025 | 10 (7–14) | 10 (7–14) | 4 (1–8) | 4 (1–8) |
 Year 2028 | 10 (7–14) | 10 (7–14) | 0 (0–2) | 0 (0–2) |
Hunan (Central China) | ||||
 Year 2023 | 22 (16–30) | 22 (16–30) | 22 (15–30) | 22 (15–30) |
 Year 2025 | 22 (16–30) | 21 (14–28) | 9 (1–17) | 8 (1–16) |
 Year 2029 | 22 (16–30) | 17 (12–23) | 0 (0–5) | 0 (0–3) |
Tianjin (North China) | ||||
 Year 2023 | 3 (2–4) | 3 (2–4) | 3 (2–4) | 3 (2–4) |
 Year 2025 | 3 (2–4) | 2 (1–3) | 1 (0–2) | 1 (0–2) |
 Year 2026 | 3 (2–4) | 2 (1–3) | 0 (0–2) | 0 (0–1) |
Guangxi (South China) | ||||
 Year 2023 | 11 (8–15) | 11 (8–15) | 11 (8–15) | 11 (8–15) |
 Year 2025 | 11 (8–15) | 10 (7–13) | 4 (1–9) | 4 (1–8) |
 Year 2028 | 11 (8–15) | 8 (5–10) | 0 (0–2) | 0 (0–1) |
Shaanxi (Northwest China) | ||||
 Year 2023 | 8 (6–12) | 8 (6–12) | 9 (6–12) | 9 (6–12) |
 Year 2025 | 9 (6–12) | 7 (5–10) | 3 (0–7) | 3 (0–6) |
 Year 2028 | 9 (6–12) | 6 (4–8) | 0 (0–1) | 0 (0–1) |
Guizhou (Southwest China) | ||||
 Year 2023 | 8 (6–11) | 8 (6–11) | 8 (6–11) | 8 (6–11) |
 Year 2025 | 8 (6–11) | 7 (5–10) | 3 (0–7) | 3 (0–6) |
 Year 2027 | 8 (6–11) | 6 (4–8) | 1 (0–3) | 0 (0–2) |