From: Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
Parameter | Description | Value2 | Sensitivity analysis range |
---|---|---|---|
R 0 | Reference reproduction number in the Tropics | Â | Â |
α min | Minimal seasonality rescaling |  |  |
G t | Generation time, days3 | 3.6 (2.2 to 5.1) | Â |
μ -1 | Mean infectious period, days3 | 2.5 (1.1 to 4.0) |  |
ε -1 | Average latency period, days | 1.1 days | 1.1 to 2.5 |
r β | Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 |
p a | Probability of becoming an asymptomatic individual | 0.33 | 0.33 and 0.5 |
p t | Probability of traveling of a symptomatic individual | 0.5 | 0.4 to 0.6 |
β | Transmission rate | μ -1 R 0/(1-p a -r β p t ) | As calculated from the reference range of R 0 |
α max | Maximal seasonality rescaling | 1.1 | 1.0 and 1.1 |