Figure 7

The effects of size of baseline isolation effectiveness and timing of control interventions on the likelihood of observing an outbreak. Probability that no major epidemic unfolds as a function of isolation effectiveness and timing of implementation of control interventions. Epidemiological parameter values for EVD are shown in Table 1. The mean time from symptoms onset to diagnosis (γ _a0) is set at three days. The relative infectiousness of hospitalized cases is given by l ₀. Population size N is set at 100,000. The baseline value of R₀ is set at 1.8 by adjusting the transmission rate. After the start of interventions, the transmission rate is reduced by 80% and the relative infectiousness of hospitalized individuals is reduced by 95% (that is, l ₀ = 1, l ₁ = 0.05). The curves shown correspond to the mean of the results obtained from 500 model simulations. EVD, Ebola virus disease; R₀, basic reproduction number.