From: The potential impact of BCG vaccine supply shortages on global paediatric tuberculosis mortality
Variable (symbol) | Point estimate (range) | Source |
---|---|---|
Population at risk | ||
Annual global BCG-eligible birth cohort (B) | 130.8 million | |
Population vaccinated | HIV-negative | [12] |
HIV-negative paediatric TB deaths in 2013 (Mort) | 80,000 (64,000–97,000) | [19] |
Vaccine deployment | ||
Annual BCG demand (D) | 260 million | |
BCG coverage in 2013 (Cov) | 90 % | [14] |
Vaccine characteristics | ||
Vaccine efficacy against TB death (VE) | 66 % (8–88 %) | |
Duration of protection | 15 years | [16] |
Waning of protection | None | Assumption |
Catch-up campaign | None | Assumption |