Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

Table 3 Summary of the A/H1N1pdm Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood (MCML) calibrations and best parameter estimates.

MCML and interventions^1,2
	Baseline SFO	Reference SFO	Pre-exposure immunity SFO
Social distancing in Mexico, April 24-May 10, 2009	✓	✓	✓
Traffic reduction after April 25, 2009		✓	✓
Pre-exposure immunity			✓
Vaccinations campaigns (data-driven)		+	+
Antiviral treatment (hypothetical scenario)		+
Pre-vaccination (hypothetical scenario)		+
MCML estimates ³
Minimal seasonal rescaling factor, α _min ⁴	0.65 (0.60 - 0.70)	0.65 (0.60 - 0.70)	0.70 (0.65 - 0.75)
Reference reproduction number in the Tropics, R ₀ ⁵	1.75 (1.64 - 1.88)	1.75 (1.64 - 1.88)	1.8 (1.69 - 1.91)

¹The '✓' symbol indicates the components considered in each stochastic forecast output (SFO) set and hence also in the calibration.
²The + symbol indicates the data-driven interventions and/or hypothetical scenarios considered in addition to each SFO set.
³Each MCML calibration and the corresponding set of best estimates was used to generate the stochastic forecast output datasets consisting of an ensemble of possible epidemic evolutions defining a median, mean, and reference range for epidemic observables.
⁴The α _min interval is the best-fit range within the minimal resolution allowed by the Monte Carlo sampling.
⁵For R ₀, we report the 95% confidence interval (in square brackets).

ISSN: 1741-7015