From: Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
MCML and interventions1,2 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Baseline SFO | Reference SFO | Pre-exposure immunity SFO | |
Social distancing in Mexico, April 24-May 10, 2009 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
Traffic reduction after April 25, 2009 | ✓ | ✓ | |
Pre-exposure immunity | ✓ | ||
Vaccinations campaigns (data-driven) | + | + | |
Antiviral treatment (hypothetical scenario) | + | ||
Pre-vaccination (hypothetical scenario) | + | ||
MCML estimates 3 | |||
Minimal seasonal rescaling factor, α min 4 | 0.65 (0.60 - 0.70) | 0.65 (0.60 - 0.70) | 0.70 (0.65 - 0.75) |
Reference reproduction number in the Tropics, R 0 5 | 1.75 (1.64 - 1.88) | 1.75 (1.64 - 1.88) | 1.8 (1.69 - 1.91) |