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Table 3 Summary of the A/H1N1pdm Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood (MCML) calibrations and best parameter estimates.

From: Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

MCML and interventions1,2
  Baseline SFO Reference SFO Pre-exposure immunity SFO
Social distancing in Mexico, April 24-May 10, 2009
Traffic reduction after April 25, 2009  
Pre-exposure immunity   
Vaccinations campaigns (data-driven)   + +
Antiviral treatment (hypothetical scenario)   +  
Pre-vaccination (hypothetical scenario)   +  
MCML estimates 3
Minimal seasonal rescaling factor, α min 4 0.65 (0.60 - 0.70) 0.65 (0.60 - 0.70) 0.70 (0.65 - 0.75)
Reference reproduction number in the Tropics, R 0 5 1.75 (1.64 - 1.88) 1.75 (1.64 - 1.88) 1.8 (1.69 - 1.91)
  1. 1The '' symbol indicates the components considered in each stochastic forecast output (SFO) set and hence also in the calibration.
  2. 2The + symbol indicates the data-driven interventions and/or hypothetical scenarios considered in addition to each SFO set.
  3. 3Each MCML calibration and the corresponding set of best estimates was used to generate the stochastic forecast output datasets consisting of an ensemble of possible epidemic evolutions defining a median, mean, and reference range for epidemic observables.
  4. 4The α min interval is the best-fit range within the minimal resolution allowed by the Monte Carlo sampling.
  5. 5For R 0, we report the 95% confidence interval (in square brackets).