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Table 5 Effects of pre-vaccination.

From: Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

Country Relative reduction in epidemic size, %a
  Pre-vaccination 20% Pre-vaccination 30% Pre-vaccination 50%
China 27.3 to 28.2 46.3 to 48.2 98.9 to 99.3
Hungary 23.2 to 24.4 38.6 to 39.2 87.9 to 90.0
United States 20.5 to 21.8 35.2 to 36.2 92.4 to 95.5
Canada 21.5 to 22.6 37.5 to 38.3 93.4 to 95.6
Italy 23.0 to 24.4 38.3 to 39.0 90.2 to 91.8
Japan 23.4 to 26.8 38.1 to 40.1 85.5 to 89.8
Israel 22.9 to 24.8 37.8 to 38.8 84.3 to 86.4
France 22.0 to 24.2 36.6 to 38.1 84.4 to 86.8
Sweden 23.1 to 24.8 38.2 to 39.0 86.3 to 88.6
UK 22.2 to 24.6 36.6 to 38.4 84.7 to 88.4
Germany 22.6 to 24.2 37.7 to 38.6 88.9 to 90.6
Portugal 22.7 to 24.5 37.1 to 38.6 88.3 to 92.4
Finland 22.9 to 24.7 37.7 to 38.7 84.5 to 87.3
Austria 21.6 to 23.5 35.8 to 37.1 81.7 to 84.1
Ireland 22.0 to 24.0 36.2 to 37.6 83.0 to 86.6
Denmark 21.5 to 23.5 35.6 to 37.1 81.7 to 85.0
Turkey 26.5 to 27.0 46.4 to 49.6 95.4 to 95.8
Iceland 20.6 to 24.8 33.9 to 38.6 78.8 to 87.8
Belgium 23.2 to 24.8 38.6 to 39.4 89.1 to 91.1
Slovenia 21.5 to 23.3 35.3 to 36.8 76.4 to 81.1
Netherlands 21.7 to 24.7 36.3 to 38.4 85.5 to 89.5
Switzerland 21.0 to 24.0 34.4 to 36.8 77.5 to 81.9
Spain 22.4 to 23.7 37.7 to 39.0 91.7 to 93.7
Greece 23.2 to 24.8 38.6 to 39.5 86.1 to 87.7
Tunisia 24.5 to 25.7 41.0 to 42.1 90.9 to 92.0
Czech Republic 24.8 to 25.6 42.0 to 44.9 89.7 to 90.6
Norway 23.1 to 24.7 37.9 to 38.9 85.9 to 88.7
  1. aRelative reduction of the epidemic size, using different hypothetical pre-vaccination scenarios, in the countries of the northern hemisphere in which vaccines were available during the 2009 to 2010 winter season. The relative reduction in the epidemic size was calculated as the relative reduction of the maximum of the 95% reference range, obtained from 2,000 stochastic realizations, in the reference stochastic forecast output set.