Table 1 Median chance-corrected concordance (%), cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy for 6 methods across 500 splits by age and health care experience

37.8

(37.6, 37.9)

0.717

(0.711, 0.721)

41.4

(41.1, 41.6)

0.715

(0.709, 0.720)

50.5

(50.2, 50.7)

0.77

(0.766, 0.775)

54.1

(53.9, 54.3)

0.764

(0.760, 0.769)

44.6

(44.2, 45.0)

0.744

(0.736, 0.751)

44.9

(44.5, 45.2)

0.74

(0.735, 0.746)

52.5

(52.1, 53.0)

0.783

(0.776, 0.786)

52.1

(51.7, 52.4)

0.768

(0.762, 0.774)

44.6

(44.2, 44.9)

0.809

(0.801, 0.817)

48.2

(47.9, 48.6)

0.778

(0.768, 0.787)

47.3

(46.9, 47.7)

0.817

(0.809, 0.824)

50.3

(50.1, 50.7)

0.79

(0.781, 0.801)

RF

PCVA

CCC

CSMF accuracy

CCC

CSMF accuracy

Median

95% CI

Median

95% CI

Median

95% CI

Median

95% CI

37.2

(37.0, 37.4)

0.708

(0.705, 0.712)

29.1

(28.9, 29.3)

0.638

(0.632, 0.644)

49.2

(49.0, 49.4)

0.769

(0.766, 0.774)

42.2

(41.8, 42.5)

0.68

(0.673, 0.687)

44.6

(44.1, 44.9)

0.715

(0.706, 0.721)

33.5

(33.2, 33.7)

0.63

(0.615, 0.637)

50.2

(49.7, 50.5)

0.739

(0.729, 0.748)

44.5

(44.1, 45.2)

0.678

(0.671, 0.685)

47.2

(46.9, 47.5)

0.769

(0.759, 0.779)

25.5

(25.2, 26.0)

0.692

(0.682, 0.701)

50

(49.8, 50.4)

0.793

(0.779, 0.802)

29.3

(28.7, 29.7)

0.719

(0.707, 0.734)

KL

InterVA

CCC

CSMF accuracy

CCC

CSMF accuracy

Median

95% CI

Median

95% CI

Median

95% CI

Median

95% CI

0.672

(0.667, 0.676)

23.4

(23.3, 23.6)

0.611

(0.605, 0.620)

0.688

(0.682, 0.692)

23.8

(23.6, 24.0)

0.625

(0.617, 0.632)

0.674

(0.668, 0.680)

29.6

(29.3, 29.9)

0.514

(0.506, 0.526)

0.69

(0.683, 0.696)

30.3

(30.0, 30.6)

0.52

(0.510, 0.529)

0.808

(0.796, 0.817)

20

(19.8, 20.4)

0.627

(0.602, 0.641)

0.81

(0.799, 0.819)

19.4

(19.2, 19.8)

0.629

(0.606, 0.648)