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Table 1 Main results

From: The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease

  SIM SIM50 SIM20
Results Mean 95% SI Mean 95% SI Mean 95% SI
Total number of infected 320 555 301 587 339 243 154 517 145 664 163 678 64 307 60 326 68 293
   Percentage of population 3.6 3.4 3.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 0.72 0.67 0.76
Intermunicipal infections (n) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Incidence after 60 days (n) 77 184 72 760 81 784 37 065 34 941 39 321 15 240 14 307 16 190
   Percentage of population 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.17 0,16 0.18
Afflicted municipalities (n) 262.1 258.5 265.4 47.2 46.6 47.8 34.0 33.6 34.5
Mean incidence in municipalities (n) 267.1 251.4 283.1 128.3 120.5 136.0 52.7 49.5 56.1
Mean influence distance (km) 1 222 -   245.1 -   153.8 -  
Travel intensity matrix Value    Value    Value   
Total travel intensity (millions/day) 4.2 -   2.9 -   1.5 -  
Intermunicipal one-way routes (n) 11 611 -   1 386 -   797 -  
Summary Value    Value    Value   
Extinction runs (n) 262 -   268 -   305 -  
Mean time for extinction (days) 3.48 2.84 4.14 3.48 2.78 4.25 3.61 2.85 4.46
Mean number of afflicted municipalities before extinction (n) 1.33 1.26 1.41 1.29 1.21 1.36 1.27 1.22 1.34
Total number of realizations 1 000 -   1 000 -   1 000 -  
  1. The table shows the main results along with miscellaneous information about the simulation.
  2. Figures refer to simulated values at the end of the run, 60 days. The mean, where applicable, was taken over the set of runs that ran their course through the full 60 days.
  3. The extinction runs hence did not affect the means but their numbers are of course interesting in their own right.
  4. The 95% simulation intervals (SI) were calculated by bootstrapping 10 000 samples.
  5. By incidence, we mean the number of infectious people.
  6. Intermunicipal infections is the percentage of the total number of infected that caught the disease via intermunicipal infection.
  7. There are 289 municipalities in Sweden and the population is approximately 8.9 million.