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Figure 2 | BMC Medicine

Figure 2

From: Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1)

Figure 2

Daily incidence for an influenza outbreak calculated using an SIR model. (a) With constant transmission rate. (b) With small seasonal variation in transmission rate. For a constant transmission rate, after an initial transient period, the system approaches an endemic level (that is, equilibrium) by damped oscillations. If a small amount of seasonal variation in transmission is introduced oscillations are sustained rather than damping out, and the system eventually tends to an annual cycle.

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