Table 1 Median, quartile and minimum - maximum values for selected outputs of one year of model simulation.

Time to reach 20-case point (days)

9.0

12.0

14.0

19.0

39.0

Time to reach 100-case point (days)

13.0

18.0

22.0

32.0

71.0

Time for 32 provinces to be affected (days)

34.0

45.0

57.0

86.5

314.0

Time for 48 provinces to be affected (days)

41.0

55.0

71.5

112.0

> 1 year

Epidemic peak point (days)

45.0

62.5

80.8

121.0

not reached

Final epidemic size (number of cases)

103,885

4,432,247

6,377,555

8,021,328

9,796,738

Cumulative number hospitalized

594

38,832

58,165

74,935

104.976

Average number of new cases per day over 2-week peak period

1916

88,453

174,804

245,209

326,260

Average number of new hospitalizations per day over 2-week peak period

9

779

1,564

2,238

3508

Cumulative number of cases in swine owners

1940

224,208

410,276

671,703

1,159,291

Cumulative number of cases in chicken owners

630

172,731

351,243

632,316

1,174,682

Cumulative number of cases in duck owners

160

23,732

51,131

95,790

182,520

Number of days Hanoi hospitals running at > 150% bed capacity

0

0

0

14

20

Number of days HCMC hospitals running at > 150% bed capacity

0

0

0

0

11

Time from 100-case point in HCMC to 100-case point in Hanoi

12

23

29

43

156

Number of rural cases

16,105

963,791

1,540,008

2,184,359

3,220,171

Number of urban cases

87,780

3,440,732

4,844,258

5,831,431

6,668,559

Number of exposed pigs

3,053

259,328

462,633

737,443

1,239,324

Number of exposed chickens

4,612

1,890,957

3,745,045

6,417,106

11,419,922

Number of exposed ducks

2,319

580,132

1,176,129

2,072,495

3,708,187

Number of infections by age group

0 to 5 years

7,611

366,741

543,858

685,656

832,651

6 to 15 years

35,370

1,211,114

1,617,223

2,031,725

2,609,789

16 to 25 years

30,075

1,312,009

1,837,835

2,212,661

2,599,191

26 to 34 years

22,277

998,079

1,450,723

1,784,407

2,096,515

35 to 49 years

6,067

363,076

627,659

870,774

1,134,289

50 to 64 years

1,920

130,147

232,582

329,305

435,306

65 years and over

565

38,492

71,658

106,032

147,498

Hospitalizations by age group

0 to 5 years

71

4,493

6,766

8,624

12,144

6 to 15 years

113

5,453

7,467

9,481

13,831

16 to 25 years

119

8,128

11,393

14,091

18,991

26 to 34 years

198

13,580

19,932

24,989

33,959

35 to 49 years

81

5,540

9,424

13,345

19,910

50 to 64 years

10

1,284

2,279

3,310

5,262

65 years and over

2

393

721

1,079

1,792