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Table 3 Models for predicting risk of other diabetes outcomesa

From: Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting




Model objective (undiagnosed or incident diabetes)

Definition of diabetes as reported

Risk predictors in the model

Bindraban et al. [54]


The Netherlands

Diagnosed and undiagnosed

FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L and/or self-report

Age, BMI, waist circumference, resting heart rate, first-degree relative with diabetes, hypertension, history of CVD, ethnicity

Cabrera de León et al. [24]


Canary Islands


Persons recorded as having diabetes if they said they had the disease and reported dietary or pharmacological treatment with oral antidiabetics or insulin. Persons were considered to have undetected type 2 diabetes if they were unaware of disease at time of inclusion in study but had two consecutive FPG values ≥ 7 mmol/L (≥ 126 mg/dL).

Men: age, waist/height ratio, family history of diabetes

Women: age, waist/height ratio, family history of diabetes, gestational diabetes

Gray et al. [58]



Undiagnosed and impaired glucose regulation

Participants diagnosed with type 2 diabetes according to WHO criteria [1] with FPG ≥ 7 mmol/L and/or 2-h PG ≥ 11.1 mmol/L. IFG defined as FPG between 6.1 and 6.9 mmol/L inclusive.

Age, ethnicity, sex, first-degree family history of diabetes, antihypertensive therapy or history of hypertension, waist circumference, BMI

Griffin et al. [55]



Diagnosed and undiagnosed

Classified according to WHO criteria

Sex, prescribed antihypertensive medication, prescribed steroids, age, BMI, family history of diabetes, smoking status

Heikes et al. [56]



Undiagnosed and pre-diabetes

Diabetes is defined as FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL and/or 2-h OGTT ≥ 200 mg/dL. Prediabetes defined as IFG and/or IGT without diabetes. Undiagnosed diabetes defined as presence of actual diabetes based on FPG and/or 2-h OGTTand absence of having been told that he or she has diabetes.

Age, waist circumference, history of gestational diabetes, family history of diabetes, ethnicity, high blood pressure, weight, height, parental diabetes, exercise

Kanaya et al. [57]



Abnormal PCPG

Abnormal 2-h PG postchallenge test result (≥ 140 mg/dL)

Sex, age, triglycerides, FPG

Xie et al. [26]



Diagnosed and undiagnosed

Participants without a previous diagnosis of diabetes were categorised according to the ADA diagnostic criteria as follows: undiagnosed diabetes (FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L) and impaired fasting glycaemia (6.1 to 6.9 mmol/L). Diabetes was defined as self-reported history of diabetes plus undiagnosed diabetes.

Men: waist circumference, age

Women: waist/hip ratio, age

  1. aADA, American Diabetes Association; BMI, body mass index; WHO, World Health Organisation; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test; CVD, cardiovascular disease; 2-h PG, two-hour 75-g postload plasma glucose level; IGT, impaired glucose tolerance; IFG, impaired fasting glucose.