Table 1 Key transmission model parameters

Number of TB infections per smear-positive case^§ (yr^-1)

16.16/11.16/23.63

16.16/11.16/23.63

16.16/11.16/23.63

16.16/11.16/23.63

Fit

Relative transmissibility of smear-negative TB

0.22

0.22

0.22

0.22

[11],[15]

Relative risk of reinfection when latent infected

0.21

0.45

1.00

0.45

[7],[13],[16]

Relative transmissibility of pre-symptomatic TB

0.22

0.22

0.22

0.22

Assumed

Rate of stabilization^¶ (yr^-1)

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

[12],[17]

Rate of stabilization after successful treatment (yr^-1)

0.20

0.20

0.20

0.20

[12]

Duration of treatment (yr)

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

[8],[18]

Rate of rapid progression to active TB after recent infection (yr^-1)

0.07

0.26

0.70

0.26

[12],[19]

Rate of endogenous reactivation to active TB after remote infection (yr^-1)

0.49 × 10^-4

0.024

0.08

0.024

[20]

Relapse rate (yr^-1)

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

Assumed

Duration of pre-symptomatic TB (yr)

0.75

0.25

0.10

0.25

Assumed

Proportion of pulmonary TB that is smear-positive

0.75

0.65

0.40

0.65

[18]

Proportion of TB that is extra-pulmonary

0.15

0.23

0.40

0.23

Assumed

Mortality rate from smear-positive TB (yr^-1)

0.23

0.56

1.33

0.56

[21]

Mortality rate from smear-negative and extra pulmonary TB (yr^-1)

0.18

0.53

1.33

0.53

[21]

Self-cure rate, smear-positive (yr^-1)

0.10

0.07

0.00

0.07

[21]

Self-cure rate, smear-negative and extra-pulmonary (yr^-1)

0.15

0.11

0.00

0.11

[21]

Detection (and diagnosis) rate (yr^-1) ^§

1.01/1.05/1.94

1.01/1.05/1.94

1.01/1.05/1.94

1.01/1.05/1.94

fit

Rate of new HIV infections (yr^-1)^§

0.34e-3/0.39e-6/0.02

0.00

0.00

0.00

fit

Mean time from HIV infection to CD4 count of 350 (yr)

0.00

4.19

0.00

0.00

[22]

Rate of progression from ART eligibility to on ART (yr^-1)^§

0.00

0.00

0.04/0.06/0.19

0.00

fit

Mortality rate from HIV (yr^-1)

0.00

0.01

0.13

0.04

[23]