Figure 3

The calibration parameter space and impact on future estimate of TB burden. A. The sampled points of the calibration, colored by log-likelihood. Red points have the highest likelihood (see fit in B-F), while blue points result in trajectories which differ substantially from the data. The orange and purple lines in B-F are drawn using only sampled calibration points from within the boxes drawn on A, where orange represents calibration points with a higher contact rate and lower proportion of fast progressors, while purple represents a lower contact rate and a higher proportion of fast progressors. B. Proportion of the population latently infected is higher when a higher contact rate and lower proportion of fast progressors is used. C, E, F. The projected decline in incidence is lower when a higher contact rate is used. The higher absolute incidence is driven by reactivation from the latent reservoir as shown in E and F. D. The trend in mortality follows incidence. Gray shaded area is 95% credible interval.