Fig. 5

Outbreak simulations for (top) Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) and (bottom) severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) through branching process models using parameters shown in Table 3. Curves are derived from 5,000 outbreak realizations. The distributions of outbreak size, duration, and peak size are well characterized by power-law-like distributions. The cumulative and generation-based incidence curves for the five largest outbreaks are highlighted in red; while smaller outbreaks are displayed in cyan. Right panels illustrate the expected frequency of occurrence of an outbreak of a given size