Table 2 Model fit to calibration targets

Notifications rate (per 100,000)

667

622.7

61.9

60.3

Prevalence rate (per 100,000)

705 (388–1114)

662

290 (113–548)

312

Incidence rate (per 100,000)

900 (832–990)

892

168 (81–286)

167

Mortality rate (per 100,000)

179 (149–212)

191

52 (24.8–88)

64.6

% prevalence MDR (treatment naïve)

1.8 (1.5–2.3)^a

1.7

1.9 (0.1–5.3)

2.9

% prevalence MDR (retreatment)

6.7 (5.5–8.1)^a

6.1

20 (0.1–40)

13.7

15+ HIV prevalence

15 (14–16)

15.4

1.5 (1.2–2.0)

1.34

ART coverage

36 (34–39)

34

32 (24–41)

27.5