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Table 2 Model fit to calibration targets

From: TIME Impact – a new user-friendly tuberculosis (TB) model to inform TB policy decisions

  South Africa Ghana
Target (2012) Model Target (2013) Model
Notifications rate (per 100,000) 667 622.7 61.9 60.3
Prevalence rate (per 100,000) 705 (388–1114) 662 290 (113–548) 312
Incidence rate (per 100,000) 900 (832–990) 892 168 (81–286) 167
Mortality rate (per 100,000) 179 (149–212) 191 52 (24.8–88) 64.6
% prevalence MDR (treatment naïve) 1.8 (1.5–2.3)a 1.7 1.9 (0.1–5.3) 2.9
% prevalence MDR (retreatment) 6.7 (5.5–8.1)a 6.1 20 (0.1–40) 13.7
15+ HIV prevalence 15 (14–16) 15.4 1.5 (1.2–2.0) 1.34
ART coverage 36 (34–39) 34 32 (24–41) 27.5
  1. a South Africa MDR prevalence based on 2002 survey data
  2. ART, Antiretroviral therapy; MDR, Multidrug resistance