Fig. 5

The effect of alternative OPV campaign scenarios on the cumulative incidence of the outbreak (a) and the outbreak duration (b). The outbreak duration was defined as the time when the incidence in the model drops below 10 infected individuals in order to take into account the probability of a stochastic fade-out of the outbreak during the periods of low transmissibility. Color bars show the mean and error bars show the 95 % CI obtained for each scenario by running the model using the 95 % best fitting parameter values given by the MCMC simulation. The simulations were run for up to five years