Fig. 2

Transmission tree and distribution of secondary infections. a Transmission tree of one randomly chosen epidemic obtained by simulating the calibrated model. Different colors represent the setting where the individual was infected. As the whole transmission tree would have been too wide to display on a page (thousands of edges on average), we show only one component. Simulated infections occurring over the period April 2014 to September 2014 are shown. b As a, but showing infections over the period April 2014 to November 2014. c As a, but showing infections over the period April 2014 to July 2015 (i.e., the entire simulated epidemic). d Distribution of the number of secondary cases by setting as obtained by the analysis of the whole transmission tree reported in panel c. e Degree distribution of contacts with members of the same household and of the extended family as resulting from the model