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1. Baseline programmatic conditions continued
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All 2014 programmatic parameters remain unchanged (including 24 month duration of MDR-TB regimen and 400 treatment places available at any one time being the limiting factor for treatment commencement in 2014)
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2A. Short-course MDR-TB regimen
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Change from standard WHO regimen to short-course regimen [6–9]
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Total period of time on treatment for MDR-TB regimens decreases from a mean of 24 months to 10 months (with treatment places remaining capped at 400)
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2B. Short-course MDR-TB regimen with improved outcomes
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As for short-course regimen, with improvement in treatment outcomes [6]
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Treatment outcomes improve to a treatment success rate of 87.9% (with ratio of deaths to defaults under treatment unchanged), in addition to changes modelled under short-course regimen scenario above
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3. Decreased delays to detection for all forms of TB (first comparator)
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Active or intensified case finding halves the period of time to first presentation from baseline value [28, 29]
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Time from disease onset to correct identification of patients as having active TB halves (with no change to the proportion correctly identified as to their infecting strain)
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4. Improved MDR-TB treatment outcomes (second comparator)
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Social support for all patients on treatment halves the proportion of outcomes resulting in interruption/failure or death [30]
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Proportion of patients interrupting/failing or dying on treatment halves (with treatment success proportion increasing to 1 – [1 – previous treatment success proportion] ÷ 2)
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5. Improved MDR-TB identification (third comparator)
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Halve the number of health facilities without access to drug-susceptibility testing (e.g. Xpert MTB/RIF), thereby halving the proportion of patients not recognised as MDR-TB at presentation [31, 32]
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Proportion of patients with MDR-TB who are incorrectly diagnosed as having DS-TB halves (with correct diagnosis proportion increasing to 1 – [1 – previous correct identification proportion] ÷ 2)
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6. Increased MDR-TB treatment availability (fourth comparator)
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Increased resources doubles the number of patients that can be simultaneously treated
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Increase number of MDR-TB treatment places available to 800 (with DS-TB and XDR-TB treatment capacity unchanged)
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