Fig. 3

Number of people from the four disease groups estimated to require palliative care from 2006 to 2040. Solid lines represent total estimate, Dotted lines represent estimates of pain prevalence for each disease group. a Cancer deaths, b Organ failure deaths (chronic cardiovascular, respiratory, renal or liver disease), c Dementia deaths, and d Deaths from Other illnesses (degenerative neurological disease, cerebrovascular disease and HIV) that are likely to require palliative care between 2006 and 2040. The recent trend in deaths from each of these disease groups has been calculated and projected from 2014 to 2040. For a and b the trend from 2006 to 2014 has been projected. For c and d the trend from 2011 to 2014 has been projected (to avoid errors based on coding changes between 2010 and 2011)