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Table 3 Estimated palliative care need in England and Wales, 2014–2040, using two different projection methods

From: How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services

  Deaths potentially requiring palliative care
2014 2020 2030 2040
All deaths 501,424 499,838 546,768 628,659
Projection method 1a n (%) 376,068 (75.0) 374,879 (75.0) 410,076 (75.0) 471,494 (75.0)
Projection method 2 (constant proportion)b n (%) 375,398 (74.9) 374,648 (75.0) 410,018 (75.0) 469,305 (74.9)
Projection method 2 (annual change 2006–2014)c n (%) 375,398 (74.9) 384,343 (76.6) 441,625 (80.4) 537,240 (85.0)
Projection method 2 (annual change 2011–2014)d n (%) 375,398 (74.9) 385,977 (77.3) 447,688 (82.6) 550,734 (87.1)
  1. aProjection method 1: 75% of all deaths [5, 26]
  2. bProjection method 2 (constant proportion: proportion of all deaths requiring palliative care according to included International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 codes, assuming this proportion remains the same as in 2014
  3. cProjection method 2 (annual change 2006–2014) projection of mean annual change in proportion needing palliative care according to ICD-10 estimate from 2006 to 2014
  4. dProjection method 2 (annual change 2011–2014): projection of mean annual change in ICD-10 estimate from 2011 to 2014