
Deaths potentially requiring palliative care


2014

2020

2030

2040


All deaths

501,424

499,838

546,768

628,659

Projection method 1^{a}

n (%)

376,068 (75.0)

374,879 (75.0)

410,076 (75.0)

471,494 (75.0)

Projection method 2 (constant proportion)^{b}

n (%)

375,398 (74.9)

374,648 (75.0)

410,018 (75.0)

469,305 (74.9)

Projection method 2 (annual change 2006–2014)^{c}

n (%)

375,398 (74.9)

384,343 (76.6)

441,625 (80.4)

537,240 (85.0)

Projection method 2 (annual change 2011–2014)^{d}

n (%)

375,398 (74.9)

385,977 (77.3)

447,688 (82.6)

550,734 (87.1)


^{a}Projection method 1: 75% of all deaths [5, 26]

^{b}Projection method 2 (constant proportion: proportion of all deaths requiring palliative care according to included International Classification of Disease (ICD)10 codes, assuming this proportion remains the same as in 2014

^{c}Projection method 2 (annual change 2006–2014) projection of mean annual change in proportion needing palliative care according to ICD10 estimate from 2006 to 2014

^{d}Projection method 2 (annual change 2011–2014): projection of mean annual change in ICD10 estimate from 2011 to 2014