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Table 4 Surprise Question accuracy by profession

From: How accurate is the ‘Surprise Question’ at identifying patients at the end of life? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Total Died Survived Sensitivity Specificity PPV NPV c-statistic
Doctors  
No 218 71 (33) 147 (67)      
Yes 442 26 (6) 416 (94) 73 74 33 94 0.735
Total 660 97 (15) 563 (85) (63–82) (70–78) (26–39) (92–96) (0.688–0.783)
Nurses  
No 720 210 (29) 510 (71)      
Yes 2516 259 (10) 2257 (90) 45 82 29 90 0.632
Total 3236 469 (14) 2767 (86) (40–49) (80–83) (26–33) (86–91) (0.608–0.655)
  1. Sensitivity (the ability to recognise those who were dying, e.g. 71/97 for doctors)
  2. Specificity (the ability to recognise those who were not dying, e.g. 26/97 for doctors)
  3. PPV positive predictive value, the proportion of patients who died when the clinician predicted dying, e.g. 71/218 for doctors), NPV negative predictive value, the proportion of patients who survived when the clinician predicted survival, e.g. 416/442 for doctors)