Table 1 Posterior medians and 95% credible intervals of covariates selected for final risk model

Season (reference Jan–June)

3.13

(2.44–4.03)

2.52

(1.69–3.82)

Type 1 immunity (10% difference)

0.89

(0.81–0.99)

Under immunization (10% difference)

1.12

(1.01–1.24)

1.28

(1.09–1.50)

Zero RI doses (10% difference)

1.24

(1.11–1.38)

Sqrt. recent cases

1.78

(1.44–2.19)

1.08

(0.90–1.30)

Sqrt. recent neighbor cases

1.18

(1.05–1.32)

1.31

(1.15–1.50)